Great Video

This is a great video - don't let the title fool you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo&feature=player_embedded

Trade Opportunities in India

CANADA - INDIA RELATIONS:

Canada Needs to Boost Sagging Trade Relations with India

Vancouver, B.C. - November 24, 2010 - A new study authored by Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada's Senior Editor, Douglas Goold, argues the Government of Canada and Canadian businesses need to wake up and capitalize on the trade potential of India before it's too late. The report, released today by the Canadian International Council, highlights India as a priority market for Canada and offers key recommendations to improve Canada-India policy and business relations.

Doing Business in India: Success, Failure and the Prospects for Canada provides an in-depth examination of Canadian companies doing business in India. In particular, it explores what they see as the opportunities and challenges, the unique business culture of India, the security issues, and the opportunities for government and business to work together to strengthen trade relations.

Dr. Douglas Goold is the Director of the National Conversation on Asia and Senior Editor of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, as well as Senior Fellow with CIC.

The full report can be viewed here.

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Lies Damned Lies and Statistics

It is appropriate, based on the close relationship between Canada and the US, that the phrase “lies, damned lies, and statistics" was first uttered by a British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, but made famous by the American writer Mark Twain.

However, there was never a truer phrase when it comes to the question of energy interdependence between Canada and the US.  On any given day the financial pages, and more and more frequently, the lifestyle pages of major newspapers across North America are filled with “facts” and “statistics” of the importance of energy to North America.

The newest set of lies, damned lies and statistics is the “boycott” of Alberta oil by companies like the Gap, Levis and Timberland. In a public media release San Fransisco-based environmental group Forest Ethics claimed that the companies were joining others in refusing to buy oil produced from the oil sands. In the last day or so all of the companies are backing away from the word boycott but the damage is already done.

For Canada and the US the only statistic that really matters is that Canada is the largest supplier of energy to the US (19% of its oil consumption) and the US is the largest customer for Canadian energy. The rest is just noise.

As is true in most of the trade relationship between Canada and the US we need each other. Canada represents, for the US administration of Barack Obama, a way to keep a vital campaign promise. President Obama promised Americans he would find a way to establish a secure continental energy supply. Obama also promised a lesser dependency on “foreign oil.” Canada provides both.

The challenge is that less than 24% of Americans even know Canada is their largest energy supplier.  Most assume it is either Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. This poses a unique threat to both Canada and the US.

With the average American firmly focused on OPEC oil few are looking North. Tainting the discussion is the strawman of dirty oil and global warming. The result is that the American public is ignoring an opportunity to move away from “foreign oil” (or at least Arab oil) and the Canadian government is missing a very real opportunity to increase its trade with a steadfast friend.

Albertans, and Americans, must stand up to the “lies, damned lies and statistics” of groups like Forest Ethics. Companies like the Gap and Levis must be made to recognize that boycotts of this type only hurt the very people who are their customers. Further, it is not just oil sands workers who will lose their jobs if Forest Ethics and their ilk are successful but so will the workers at Gap and Levis when Albertans don`t have the money to buy their products.

For Americans standing up to Forest Ethics means a reliable energy supply and for Canada increased trade and revenues. That is a statistic we can all live with.

A Looming Labour Shortage

I was recently speaking to a number of business leaders here in Calgary. We were discussing the state of business affairs both here and in the United States. I expected there to be a number of complaints about regulations, taxes and the like. Interestingly, the conversation quickly turned to human resources.

One statistic stood out – the consensus around the table was that in the next 3-5 years 45% of Alberta’s work force is due to retire. 45%!!

Assuming that these businesspeople are right this will have a dramatic effect on both Alberta and the country as a whole. Think about it. We are already short of workers in Alberta. Yes, the 2009 downturn created a new pool of unemployed but Calgary’s newly released unemployment rate is only 6.7%. That is higher than what we saw in 2007 but still a rate to be envied by many jurisdictions across North America (Many American states are running over 10%).

In 2007-2008 when unemployment rates in Alberta were running at 3% or lower we saw an overheated job market that had 15year olds starting at $16.00 an hour flipping burgers, engineers earning signing bonuses in the 10’s of thousands of dollars and Alberta companies bringing in foreign workers in the thousands.

Imagine what it will be like when 45% of the work force can retire. Granted, not all workers who can retire will. Many will want to stay on past the often mandatory 65 retirement age but they will stay on under very different terms.

Those who choose not to head for sunnier climes will be demanding more money, shorter working hours and better benefits. If an employer refuses the worker’s answer will be simple “I think I will retire on Friday, take my pension and go across the street to work for the competitor.” The reality is they will be able to do just that.

Companies will be forced to change how they manage and compensate older workers to hold them in the work force while scrambling to hire a diminishing pool of new grads. A small HVAC contractor here in Calgary told me that he is paying the full tuition for a student so that that student will come to work for him on graduation.

An expensive solution – sure. However, as the small business owner told me “I don’t know any other way to get the kind of worker I need – they are just not in the labour pool today.” Again, this is when we are at 6.7% unemployment. Wait until we are at 0% - or less.

In the absence of a home-grown work force Alberta will again need to turn to foreign trained workers. The challenge is that in the absence of a comprehensive system to recognize foreign credentials and training and in the face of a four year plus backlog in clearing applications foreign workers are a long tern solution at best.

There are no simple answers to the looming worker shortage but one thing is certain. Without a comprehensive solution that includes governments, business, unions, community groups, universities and colleges and the pubic as a whole hiring an employee is about to get a whole lot more difficult – and a whole lot more expensive.